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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidates to 110.1

  • September 24 2019
  • Finding No. 8106
  • Topic: Consumer Confidence Press Release
  • Country: Australia
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,011 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend September 21/22, 2019.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence gained 0.7% last week after losing 3.5% in the previous reading. Strength was relatively broadly based across the subindices, although the “time to buy a household item” index dropped a sharp 3.8% and is now at its lowest level in ten years.
  • Current financial conditions gained 1.9% and remain above the long run average, while future financial conditions gained 1.6%.
  • The economic conditions subindices also rose, with current economic conditions up 3.6% and future economic conditions up 1.0%. Both economic subindices remain well below their long run averages.
  • The four week moving average for inflation expectations remained stable at 4.1%.

ANZ Senior Economist, Felicity Emmett, commented:

“The modest rise in confidence leaves it well below its long run average. The weakness in the time-to-buy-a-household-item index is particularly disappointing, given that tax cuts should be supporting this measure. Rising concerns over the impact of the stimulus, combined with the lift in the unemployment rate in August and ongoing global easing in monetary policy settings, suggest to us that the RBA will likely cut rates again in October. So far, though, consumers seem impervious to both fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the combination of weak wage growth and high levels of debt may prove to be the more dominant driver of confidence and spending.”





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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2