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ALP (53%) lead over the L-NP (47%) narrowed slightly before Sydney re-opened this week

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Oct. 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.
ALP support has dropped to 53% (down 1% point since late September) cf. L-NP on 47% (up 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

The 1% point swing to the L-NP came after Prime Minister Scott Morrison met foreign leaders including US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington in late September as part of a series of security meetings. However, the swing to the L-NP in recent weeks has merely acted to reverse the similarly sized swing away from the L-NP in September.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Bob Hawke at the 1983 Federal Election (ALP 53.2% cf. L-NP 46.8%).

Interviewing for the latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of October 2/3 & 9/10, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,794 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

Primary Voting Intention shows the L-NP gaining the edge over the ALP

Primary support for the L-NP increased 1.5% points to 37.5% in mid-October and is now just ahead of the ALP which is unchanged on 36%. Greens support has dropped 1% point to 11.5%.

Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3% while support for Independents/Others was unchanged at 12%.

Voting Intention by State shows ALP still leading in Victoria, NSW, WA, SA & Tasmania

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP again leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States including Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. In contrast, the LNP leads only in Queensland.

The ALP leads in Victoria on 56% (unchanged since late September) compared to the L-NP on 44% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 2.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

There has also been little change in NSW over the last two weeks with ALP support steady at 53.5% cf. L-NP on 46.5% (unchanged). This result represents a swing of 5.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The LNP has its strongest result in Queensland and has increased its lead over the last two weeks with the LNP on 55% (up 2.5% points since late September) cf. ALP 45% (down 2.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the LNP’s lead this represents a swing of 3.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has gained ground in WA with the ALP on 55% (up 0.5% points since late September) well ahead of the L-NP on 45% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result reprensents a massive swing of 10.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP’s lead in SA has narrowed over the last two weeks with the ALP 54.5% (down 4% points since late September) ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (up 4% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 3.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads in Tasmania with the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% - a swing of 3% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence down by 1pt to 95

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 1pt to 95 in mid-October. An unchanged 40% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 45%, up 1% point, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

However, there is a wide divergence of nearly 30pts between different States with Government Confidence well below 100 in Victoria and the tourism-dependent Tasmania, around the neutral level of 100 in NSW, Queensland and Western Australia and at a high level in South Australia.

Government Confidence is at only 80 in Victoria in mid-October with the State recording the highest daily count of COVID-19 cases of any State so far during October. Government Confidence is also well below neutral in tourism-dependent Tasmania at 79.

Government Confidence has continued to recover over the last two weeks in NSW and was almost neutral at 99.5 on the eve of the State’s re-opening this week. Government Confidence in Queensland was also just below neutral at 99 while it was slightly above neutral in Western Australia at 101.

South Australia now has the highest Government Confidence at 109.5 in mid-October. Adelaide has been the city which has consistently been ‘closest to normal’ since the COVID-19 pandemic began with average movement levels in the Adelaide CBD at 74% of pre-pandemic averages in early October – higher than any other Australian Capital City.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the L-NP has regained some of the ground it lost during September but the ALP still retains a strong election-winning lead in mid-October:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 53% (down 1% point since late September) with a clear election-winning lead over the L-NP 47% (up 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis.

“One month ago, before Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the new ‘AUKUS’ defence agreement with the US and UK and before Morrison travelled to Washington DC to meet with world leaders including President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Indian Prime Minister Nardendra Modi, the ALP 52.5% had a similar lead over the L-NP 47.5%.

“The implication to draw from these results is that the international diplomacy and defence agreements have had a negligible impact on the voting intentions of Australians – it is the domestic issues dealing with COVID-19, ending lockdowns and re-opening State borders that will be the important issues over the next few months.

“On the domestic front voting intention was unchanged in mid-October in Australia’s two largest States – both in lockdown at the time of interviewing. The ALP holds leads in both NSW: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Victoria: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%. 

“NSW has this week emerged from a long 106-day lockdown and will be the first State to resume international travel in early November. This is good news for the Federal Government as the decline in support for the Federal Government accelerated in early July following the beginning of the Greater Sydney lockdown on the last weekend of June.

“By late June the Government had almost recovered the support it lost following the rape allegations made by former ministerial staffer Brittany Higgins earlier in the year. At the time Greater Sydney entered lockdown the potential election result was ‘too close to call’ with the ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%. Since Sydney’s lockdown began L-NP support has not been higher than 47.5%.

“The gain in support for the L-NP in mid-October came based on solid increases in both Queensland: LNP 55% (up 2.5% points since late September) cf. ALP 45% (down 2.5% points) and South Australia: ALP 54.5% (down 4% points) cf. L-NP 45.5% (up 4% points). The L-NP Government is heavily reliant on a strong performance in Queensland to have any hope of winning next year’s Federal Election – at present the LNP holds 23/30 seats in Queensland.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)


Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Oct. 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,794 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of October 2/3 & 9/10, 2021. A higher than usual 7.5% of electors (down 0.5% points from late September) can’t say who they support.

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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2